The point is that Blair made the right tactical choice and the story still turned sour. It will have been an unfamiliar, rather unsettling experience. The year in prospect will do nothing to dispel those feelings. Governments - even popular ones - conventionally become unpopular in the middle of a Parliamentary term They do badly in elections held at such times.

Blair was left scratching his head, wondering what the hell had happened. The hardest part for him to swallow was the knowledge that it would have been worse if he had taken the other route. Given that the Americans had their hearts set on air strikes, there were only three options for Blair: he could muster what modest appetite he has for war and give the Americans the diplomatic cover they sought; he could imitate France and Italy in condemning the bombardment; or take the German line, "Go ahead by all means, but you are on your own". The first course of action chose itself.If Blair had given his full support to the Americans but declined to offer British forces, he would have been crucified by the right-wing press, whose approbation he cherishes. It would have been "Britain's Shame - White Feather for Blair as America Faces Saddam Alone" in the Mirror, and "What Are yEU Frightened Of? - Blair Skulks with Euro-Pals as Yanks Sock It To Saddam" in the Sun.

And then, with no warning, the whole thing exploded in his face like a critically malfunctioning Tomahawk Cruise missile with the latest Mark 4 titanium alloy warhead Bang. The UN was up in arms, the cross-party consensus was dissolved, and 200,000 Guardian readers wrote in to the PM radio programme to say that the Prime Minister's illegal action made him an evil, murdering butcher, no better than Colonel Gaddafi Even the Daily Mail turned against Desert Fox. He was proud of the British lads, tough on Saddam, deeply regretful that such measures were necessary, and the staunchest imaginable ally of the good ole USA. It's always difficult for politicians to get the balance right between not wanting to seem like civilian geeks claiming undeserved credit, and making sure they get a good slice of the glory But the PM seemed at first to have got it about right.

At the beginning of last week, he counted in the bombers from Iraq, standing on the metaphorical Tarmac and clapping each one of our brave boys on the back as they wound their weary way to the Mission Debrief at Top Secret Command and Control Centre. And the way media coverage of Desert Fox turned against him serves as a reminder that, of all years since he became Labour leader, 1999 would be more easily confronted with his ideological and strategic lodestar - Mandelson - firmly fixed amid the twinkling heavens.Blair's first 20 months in office have been staggeringly successful, but last week's events will serve to remind him, to paraphrase that irritating song, that Things Can Only Get Worse. As I wrote when he was humiliated by Labour activists denying him a place on the party's NEC, it is a measure of the man that he is at his best in adversity. But this is small comfort to Tony Blair. In return, he has established himself as a man of unparalleled honour, integrity, loyalty and principle. It may cost him a year or two, but as he does not expect ever to be Prime Minister, he has no particular need of time.